ΤΟ ΦΑΙΝΟΜΕΝΟ ΤΗΣ ΠΕΤΑΛΟΥΔΑΣ

ΚΕΥΝΣ VS ΤΡΟΙΚΑ: ΡΕΥΣΤΟΤΗΤΑ ΄Η ΛΙΤΟΤΗΤΑ;

Το έργο του, που δημοσιεύτηκε το 1936, «Η γενική θεωρία της απασχόλησης του τόκου και του χρήματος» επηρέασε την οικονομική πολιτική της μεταπολεμικής Ευρώπης. Ο Βρετανός συγγραφέας Τζον Μέυναρντ Κέυνς (John Μaynard Keynes) υπήρξε ένας απ’τους μεγαλύτερους οικονομολόγους όλων των εποχών και για πολλούς ο κορυφαίος του 20ου αιώνα.

Το 1936 ήταν πρόσφατα τα αποτελέσματα του παγκόσμιου οικονομικού κραχ στον Δυτικό κόσμο: ανεργία, κοινωνικές εντάσεις που έφερναν τριγμούς στο καπιταλιστικό σύστημα.

Βασική αρχή του Κεϋνσιανισμού είναι ότι ο καπιταλισμός παρουσιάζει περιοδικά μεγάλες ελλείψεις της «ενεργού ζήτησης» των παραγόμενων προϊόντων και σε αυτή την περίπτωση μόνη λύση είναι η προσωρινή παρέμβαση του κράτους, με αύξηση των δημόσιων δαπανών, ώστε να αυξηθεί η ρευστότητα εκκίνησης. Επέμβαση όμως που πρέπει να συνδυαστεί με μια χαλαρή νομισματική πολιτική.

Τι υποστήριζε; Πως εάν η οικονομία παρουσιάζει ύφεση της οικονομικής δραστηριότητας ή αποπληθωρισμό που οφείλονται σε διεθνή «external shocks» (Μεγάλη ΄Υφεση 1929-32, Πτώχευση Lehman Brothers 2008) ή σε εσωτερικές αιτίες και το κράτος δεν εφαρμόσει άμεσα «επεκτακτική» δημοσιονομική και νομισματική πολιτική, τότε ο καπιταλισμός με αυτοτροφοδοτούμενο αρνητικό σπιράλ προς τα κάτω θα οδηγήσει την οικονομία σε ανοικτή κρίση ή και κατάρρευση.

«Υπερθέρμανση», πληθωρισμός και «υπερβάλλουσα ζήτηση»

49.1971

Ο Κέυνς διακήρυσσε και το αντίστροφο.

Εάν η οικονομία παρουσιάζει «υπερθέρμανση» και μεγάλο πληθωρισμό με άνοδο των τιμών, άρα και «υπερβάλλουσα ζήτηση» τότε το κράτος πρέπει να εφαρμόσει περιοριστική δημοσιονομική πολιτική, δηλαδή θα πρέπει να μειώσει τις δημόσιες δαπάνες, να αυξήσει τα επιτόκια και να μειώσει τη ρευστότητα. Πιθανώς να είναι απαραίτητη και η υποτίμηση του νομίσματος, αν και εφόσον είναι δυνατή. 

Ή να επιδιώξει διαρθρωτικές αλλαγές (supply side economics, εργαλειοθήκη ΟΟΣΑ και ΔΝΤ) με στόχο να διευκολυνθεί η αύξηση της παραγωγής για να καλυφτούν οι ανάγκες της «υπερβάλλουσας ζήτησης και να μην εκτοξευτεί το ισοζύγιο εξωτερικών πληρωμών στα ύψη.

 Ποια είναι σήμερα η κυρίαρχη λογική και ποια πρακτική εφαρμόζεται;

Η Γερμανία, η Ευρωπαϊκή Ένωση και το ΔΝΤ επειδή θεωρούν ότι το κύριο πρόβλημα είναι η αντιμετώπιση του πληθωρισμού που μειώνει την ανταγωνιστικότητα των χωρών σε μια παγκοσμιοποιημένη οικονομία, προτείνουν στην όποια κρίση σκληρά μέτρα περιοριστικής δημοσιονομικής και νομισματικής πολιτικής.

Το ίδιο προτείνουν και στην περίπτωση υπερχρέωσης των κρατών, όπως συνέβη με την Ελλάδα το 2009, ακόμα κι αν αυτά είναι ήδη σε κατάσταση ύφεσης.

 

 

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